Canada's Carbon Reckoning: Falling Short on Climate Commitments
A new study underscores Canada’s mounting carbon debt and the steep path to achieve true net-zero.
Breaking the Ice:
A recent study published in Nature delivers a sobering assessment of Canada’s climate obligations. While the country has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, researchers argue that this goal is only part of the equation. The study, led by a team from the University of Waterloo, reveals that Canada faces a significant “carbon debt” under equitable burden-sharing frameworks.
The researchers examined how Canada’s historical emissions and economic capacity place it in a position of high responsibility for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Their findings suggest that under equity-based principles, Canada’s cumulative negative emissions could need to reach 20.3 gigatons of CO₂ by 2100—nearly three times the amount considered under current net-zero scenarios.
This means that even after hitting net-zero, Canada will need to deploy CDR strategies at an unprecedented scale. The study highlights a critical gap in Canada’s climate policies: while mitigation efforts are well-defined, there is no clear plan for long-term carbon removal, which is essential to compensate for past emissions and meet global climate targets.
Quick Melt:
The implications extend beyond Canada’s borders. If high-emitting nations fail to account for their historical contributions to climate change, the burden of carbon removal will shift to developing countries—many of which are already experiencing the worst climate impacts. Equity-based frameworks argue that wealthier, industrialized nations, which have long benefited from fossil fuel economies, should bear the greatest responsibility for large-scale CDR.
The study points to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target as a key benchmark, warning that surpassing this limit will necessitate aggressive carbon removal strategies to bring atmospheric CO₂ levels back down. The researchers model various pathways for large-scale deployment of CDR, showing that under the most ambitious equity-driven scenario, Canada’s carbon removal efforts would need to reach 500 million tons of CO₂ per year by 2100—on par with its current fossil fuel industry.
The authors recommend that Canada:
Develop a national CDR strategy that integrates large-scale removal technologies into long-term climate planning.
Invest in DAC, BECCS, and enhanced weathering (described in The Thaw section below) while addressing land-use conflicts and technological uncertainties.
Strengthen regulatory frameworks to ensure geological carbon storage is scalable, safe, and socially acceptable.
Support international climate equity mechanisms, ensuring that responsibility for carbon removal aligns with historical emissions rather than being offloaded onto developing nations.
Without these measures, the world could struggle to close the gap.
The Thaw:
Why is CDR Essential, and What Does it Mean to Overshoot a Carbon Budget? AccumulationZone Explains.
Every ton of CO₂ emitted lingers in the atmosphere for centuries, accumulating like an unpaid debt. Scientists use the remaining carbon budget—the amount of CO₂ we can emit before surpassing critical temperature thresholds—to determine how much removal is needed. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the world has 250 gigatons of CO₂ left to emit. At current rates, this will be exhausted within six years.
This is where CDR comes in. Unlike emissions reductions, which slow the rate of warming, CDR actively removes CO₂ from the air. The most studied methods include:
Direct Air Capture (DAC): Industrial machines chemically extract CO₂ from the atmosphere and either store it underground or convert it into synthetic fuels. While promising, DAC remains energy-intensive and expensive.
Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): Plants absorb CO₂ during growth, then are burned for energy, with emissions captured and stored. However, large-scale deployment risks land-use conflicts with food production.
Enhanced Weathering: Certain minerals naturally absorb CO₂. By crushing and spreading these materials over land or ocean surfaces, scientists aim to accelerate carbon uptake. While theoretically scalable, logistical challenges remain.
The study warns that no single technology is sufficient—a diversified approach is necessary. It also raises concerns about political inertia: even if CDR methods prove viable, failure to invest now could mean they won’t scale in time to be effective.
This challenge is not unique to Canada. Other major emitters, including the U.S., the EU, and Australia, face similar obligations under equitable burden-sharing models. Some nations, like Switzerland, have already begun financing CDR projects abroad, a model that could expand if wealthier countries acknowledge their carbon debts. Future global climate agreements may require industrialized nations to directly fund and deploy CDR projects in lower-emitting countries—a shift that could redefine international climate cooperation.
Final Thoughts
The University of Waterloo study delivers a clear message: reaching net-zero by 2050 is insufficient. Without a commitment to large-scale carbon removal, Canada will fall short of its climate responsibilities, both to its own citizens and to the global community.
If Canada and the other major emitters fail to integrate CDR into their long-term climate strategies it will be nearly impossible to keep warming below catastrophic levels. The carbon reckoning has begun. The only question is whether Canada and other industrialized nations will rise to meet it.